We don’t know anyone with a real, working crystal ball to predict the future, but every year we try to do the next best thing by asking influential and thoughtful leaders from multiple segments of the woodworking industry to offer their predictions for the year ahead. In the wake of a tumultuous election and the prospect of new leadership in Washington, D.C., predictions could be especially challenging this year.

As always, we focus on three key questions:

1. What’s your prediction for the business outlook for the woodworking industry in 2025?
2. How do you see the 2025 outlook for your segment of the industry in particular?
3. Are there any trends (positive or negative) or critical factors that you think bear watching?

Our respondents this year include: 

• Amanda Conger, executive director for three industry organizations: the Cabinet Makers Association, the Association of Closet and Storage Professionals, and the National Woods Board.
• Andy O’Hare, president of the Composite Panel Association.
• Jeff Bellows, owner of Jeff Bellows Construction and co-founder of a cabinet industry group on Facebook with more than 52,000 members. Bellows is also a 2024 Wood Industry Market Leader.
• Brady Lewis, founder of the software company Allmoxy.
• Doug Hague, chief executive officer of the Architectural Woodwork Institute.

Conger: Outlook promising
Amanda Conger has a unique perspective from her position as executive director of three organizations representing cabinet shops, the closet and organized storage segment, and efforts to improve vocational education and training to develop a better workforce for the industry.

“Overall, the outlook for the woodworking industry and its various segments is promising,” she said, “with steady growth expected across commercial, residential, and organizational niches.”

She noted the sentiment in her organizations is “optimistic, with predictions of a strong year ahead.” Members of her groups anticipate increased activity from stabilized interest rates, the conclusion of the elections, and a favorable economic outlook.

As for specific segments, she said her members predict a “robust year” in commercial and institutional millwork with many contracts already secured for the year ahead. ACSP members see “significant growth” ahead for closets and organized storage, with some predicting revenue increases of 10-12%. Both cabinet and closet companies “report a strong pipeline with many projects in the design phase,” she added.

As for trends and critical factors, Conger sees positives in continued demand for cabinetry and home organization, as well as a return to smaller, more consistent jobs to sustain business activity in the post-COVID era.

However, she added, a growing challenge is client indecision due to the abundance of choices on social media. She said members “need to adapt to evolving customer preferences and market trends.” She also optimistically pointed to “political climate improvements that could lead to broader economic stability.”

O’Hare: Growth and sustainability
Andy O’Hare looks at the coming year from the perspective of companies who supply the woodworking industry with such essential materials as particleboard, MDF, and hardboard as well as decorative surface materials. Those markets have improved in 2024 with panel shipments up 3% over the previous year. He sees this as an ongoing trend and predicts particular growth in North American thermally fused laminate (TFL) products.

From O’Hare’s perspective, the key driver of growth will be a return of a stronger housing market. 

“There are several factors that bode well for the North American and U.S. housing market in particular,” said O’Hare. “Federal banks have begun to reduce interest rates, which will continue into 2025 and beyond. This will have the effect of ‘unfreezing’ the existing home market. Moreover, demographic trends bode well for household formation in the Millennial and Gen Z population cohorts, creating additional new demand.”

He said his organization’s marketing committee is working to complete a research study to explore opportunities and barriers to the use of composite panels in cabinets and furniture “with an eye towards identifying strategies to increase per capita consumption of panels in North America.”

O’Hare also emphasized that sustainability remains a key focus of the CPA, “with a special emphasis on showcasing the ability of these products to store carbon for long periods, thereby acting as a climate change mitigator.”

Bellows: Upward trend
Jeff Bellows comes from the perspective of running his own small shop and interacting daily with thousands of other small shop owners online. That gives him a distinctly pragmatic outlook.

“I think the general business outlook for 2025 is good,” he said. “I believe the market will stay on an upward trend. The growth may be slower than years past but still upward.”

Speaking specifically of the small- to medium-size custom shops, Bellows is optimistic about a return in the housing market.

“My segment looks to remain steady,” he said. “We saw a slowdown of new homes in 2024 and a focus on remodels. 2025 is looking to stay strong with remodels, and new homes are starting to come back. I think the key is to stay diversified and opportunistic.”

He said custom shops need to stay on top of rising trends in new materials and technologies.

“The trend for smaller shops like myself to watch will be TFL cabinets and closets,” Bellows said. “As smaller shops automate and bring in CNC and banders, it allows them to offer additional product lines.”

Lewis: Opportunities and challenges
Brady Lewis is focused on using technology to drive the future of the woodworking industry. To that end, he sees both chances for growth as well as some potential obstacles.

“I’m excited for our industry in 2025,” he said. “It appears to be a mixed-bag of opportunities and challenges. President Trump and a Republican-controlled Congress will turn up the intensity on the administration’s protectionist trade policies (including significant tariffs on Chinese imports), which are expected to have widespread implications.”

But, he said, the volume of work in 2025 “feels like it will remain substantial, driven by sustained demand for home renovations and custom interior solutions. I think a strong appetite for home improvement projects (especially in cabinetry and closets) is likely to keep us busy.”

Still he cautions of some potential obstacles ahead. “Sectors across manufacturing will need to contend with higher costs and possible supply chain disruptions due to tariffs and shifts in trade policy. This could lead to a more competitive market landscape, where companies with efficient operations (software/systems/tools) and robust supply chain strategies capture a larger share of available work over time. 

“The push for domestic production and localized supply chains could also stimulate growth, providing consistent (albeit potentially more expensive) sources of raw materials and hardware. While the overall volume may be healthy, companies will need to be agile and innovative to maximize opportunities in 2025.”

On the technology front, Lewis sees dynamic growth. “Cloud-based collaboration tools have already begun to transform the woodworking industry, and in 2025, we can expect even greater advancements,” he said. “These tools will continue to improve communication between design teams, manufacturers, and clients (offering real-time updates and streamlined workflows that reduce errors and accelerate project timelines). As more robust and sophisticated cloud-based tools emerge (and more importantly, collaborate with each other), the industry will benefit exponentially. This evolution will provide a sense of reliability and adaptability for businesses looking to stay competitive and efficient in a tricky economy.”

Some specific trends and challenges he sees include tariffs, rising hardware prices, and potential supply shortages. 

Leveraging systems and strategic connections will be essential for our industry to monitor inventory levels, forecast needs, and secure hardware supplies efficiently,” he said. “Having these tools in place can help mitigate disruptions, maintain project flow, and ensure that relationships with suppliers are managed smoothly amid uncertainty.”

Hague: More revenue, fewer employees
Doug Hague’s outlook for 2025 reflects the focus of his membership on architectural woodwork projects that typically have longer lead times and often more moving parts to deal with. Still, he is optimistic for continued growth.

“Backed by our 2024 AWI Cost of Doing Business survey, the numbers show manufacturers are producing more revenue with less employees,” he said. “I imagine this trend continues via machinery, technology, software and improves processes. 

“Months of backlog has shrunk by one month over the 2023 survey to 9.1 months. In correlation to the ABI (Architecture Billings Index) this would make sense with their numbers falling below the 50 mark for most of 2024. In discussion with members, many have a full Q1 but then spots to fill in Q2 and on.”

Success in architectural woodwork and millwork in 2025 will depend on how well firms find and seize opportunities. “Opportunity may shrink for some but those who have positioned themselves in 2024 might see an uptick in 2025,” he said. 

“I wouldn’t be surprised if industry wide we were flat to slight growth over 2024. Many elements could affect the growth opportunities, but if all the stars align, the crystal ball would appear really shiny. Like every year, time will tell, and you have to trust your business to be prepared and proactive to make the most of any situation good or challenging.”

Hague noted the architectural woodwork industry is slower to see the effects of trends. “We are a lagging trade in the process,” he said. “Watching the ABI go through 2024 numbers below 50 we typically feel the effects 16-18 months later.”

Interest rates and the change in administration in Washington, D.C., are on the top of Hague’s list of critical factors to watch.

“Will interest rates change significantly enough to trigger more projects that wouldn’t have otherwise started? Does the new administration implement stated items floated during election process? If so, what could happen to price and availability of imports from certain countries?”