Industry experts are generally cautiously optimistic about prospects for the coming year, but they cite continuing uncertainty about major economic influences and trends as the primary wild card going into 2026.

For this report we consulted a wide cross-section of the woodworking manufacturing sector, relying most on industry experts we’ve known for years and who have a good track record of forecasting trends. Clearly, no one has a perfectly working crystal ball to predict the future, but key trends and influencing factors were cited time and again by industry experts.

We asked about general predictions for business in 2026, specific industry predictions, and suggestions for what key trends to watch going into the new year. Here are some of the responses.

Tariffs on top
Time and again, the people we talked to cited issues of uncertainties brought on by tariffs and discussions of trade wars. “Uncertainty around U.S. trade and tariff policy is already causing many manufacturers to delay capital investments,” said Andy Turner, president and CEO of Burkle North America and also chairman of the Wood Industry Association’s National Affairs Committee.

His remarks were echoed by Peter Tuenker, managing director of IMA Schelling USA, but Tuenker also noted, despite uncertainty, many projects and companies can’t wait.

“Many of our customers have put a temporary hold on ongoing projects due to the uncertainty around the economy, tariffs, etc., but cannot wait much longer,” Tuenker said. “These projects have to do with the replacement of older equipment, but we are also seeing more interest in our automated solutions by a broader range of customers.”

Andy O’Hare, president of the Composite Panel Association, also pointed to the impact of tariffs. “The construction outlook remains weak in the near term as economic uncertainty and tariffs drive up material costs,” he said. “With the highest U.S. tariff rates in decades, smaller homebuilders face mounting pressure, leading to higher housing costs and slower development.”

A report from Bill Darcy, global president and CEO of the National Kitchen & Bath Association and the Kitchen and Bath Industry Show, said, “More than half (55%) of surveyed K&B firms cited tariffs/trade policies as their top constraint to growth over the next six months. The effects are being felt across the board, with increases in material and other costs, higher prices, and decreases in margins and consumer confidence. Higher building material costs (44%), a byproduct of rising tariffs, were cited as the third most impactful constraint to growth.”

One interesting view comes from Tim Coleman, a business consultant who has long been involved in the closets and organized storage sector. He sees a positive impact for 2026 because of the focus on mid-term elections. 

“Generally during an election year, the economy is stable because the administration in power wants there to be stability,” Coleman said. “This year, based on the recent elections in New York, New Jersey, and California the economy is going to be the focal point of everyone’s campaigns and will be talked about in all forms of media, from traditional to the internet!” 

2026 up or down?
Everyone who responded to our questions was cautiously optimistic about the outlook for 2026.

“Overall, I’d describe the 2026 outlook as steady and cautiously optimistic,” said Amanda Conger, who serves as executive director for three organizations, the Cabinet Makers Association, the Association of Closet and Storage Professionals, and the National Woods Board. “We’re not expecting explosive growth, but the worst of the slowdown seems to be behind us. Interest rates are expected to ease a bit, which should help loosen up both residential and commercial projects that were put on hold.”

“Because of the wide spectrum of industries we work with we can see that 2026 will be a solid year for most of these businesses,” said Tuenker of IMA Schelling. “We believe that 2026 will be an improvement over 2025 which was an okay year for us here in the US.”

“In the capital equipment segment — especially finishing, pressing, and automation systems — the outlook for 2026 is mixed,” said Turner of Burkle. “I believe that many companies could remain focused on cost containment and short payback projects, rather than larger-scale modernization.”

O’Hare sees potential growth on the horizon. “The remodeling and renovation market is showing modest growth after a long period of stagnation, supported by pent-up demand that has been constrained by high interest rates. Activity is expected to rise gradually through 2026 and 2027 as borrowing costs improve, though growth will likely remain below pre-pandemic trends.”

Trends to watch
Everybody is keeping a close eye on tariffs and trade war talk. The consensus is that the industry craves economic stability and certainty to drive future growth.

“The tariffs outlined for kitchen cabinets/vanities and upholstered furniture imports into the U.S. will impact all CPA members, but particularly those that provide panels for cabinets and furniture products that are then manufactured in Canada and Mexico,” said O’Hare.

Of course, even some stabilization in tariffs won’t remove all impact. “Even if we get clarity/certainty around trade policy, tariffs on imported machinery and the reciprocal tariffs being applied by other countries on U.S. exports will make U.S. manufacturing less competitive globally,” said Turner.

Conger has different predictions and focuses based on the three different associations she represents. For the CMA, she sees a “modest rebound” as housing stabilizes. For the closets and organized storage industry, she says, “The outlook is very positive,” as consumers give more priority to closet and storage projects. She also sees steady growth in industry education and training efforts.

 Tuenker sums a lot of the common sentiment. “It is still not easy for our customers and partners to look into the crystal ball and predict the immediate or even long-term future,” he said. “It seems though that more and more people are connecting the dots and what they see is that there are good times ahead and that they need to be ready for it.