TORONTO - "Canada and Mexico are highly exposed to any changes in U.S. trade policy, as both countries send over three-quarters of their exports to the U.S., while only about one-quarter of global U.S. exports are sent to its NAFTA partners," said Jean-François Perrault, Chief Economist at Scotiabank.
The U.S. accounts for at least 62 percent of Canada's Forest Products sector exports.
Scotiabank Economics issued a second of its North American Free Trade Agreement report series. In this report, Scotiabank Economics looks at some likely areas of vulnerability in the event of a substantial revision of U.S. trade policy and provides simulation results from possible scenarios that are broadly consistent with recent statements by U.S. officials.
"The U.S. isn't immune to negative shocks from changes in its trade policies," Perrault says. "If negotiations to revise NAFTA fail, any move by the U.S. to impose tariffs on trade with Canada and Mexico would have a material macroeconomic impact on all three countries and potentially serious effects on individual states, provinces and industrial sectors."
Scotiabank is Canada's international bank and a leading financial services provider in North America, Latin America, the Caribbean and Central America, and Asia-Pacific. It has over 23 million customers.
Highlights of Scotiabank's NAFTA Report:
- Three 'What if' scenarios from Scotiabank Economics on the effects of failed negotiations—featuring progressively higher tariffs and greater trade disruption.
- Canadian and Mexican exports to the U.S. account for roughly 20% and 26% of their GDPs, respectively.
- The U.S. is less dependent on trade with its NAFTA neighbours, but its supply chains are highly integrated with Canada and Mexico and would face relatively higher tariffs than its NAFTA partners if all three were to revert to trade on a Most-Favoured Nation (MFN) basis.
A recent, unofficial draft of the U.S. administration's possible NAFTA negotiating objectives indicates that taxation, intellectual property rights, e-commerce and cross-border business practices may be key areas of U.S. concern.
The U.S. administration has also identified sectors including softwood lumber, agricultural goods and finished food products as potential areas for review outside of NAFTA. The SOftwood Lumber Agreement has not been part of NAFTA.
Revisions to NAFTA's rules of origin and dispute settlement mechanisms hold potential pitfalls, but could also make NAFTA function more equitably and efficiently for all three countries.
Scotiabank Economics is introducing a new resource: a guide to NAFTA. Visit Scotiabank Talks NAFTA for the latest reports and analysis: www.scotiabank.com/nafta
For the full report, visit www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/0,,3112,00.html
SOURCE Scotiabank - Economic Reports