TEMPE, Ariz. -- Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the second consecutive month following a 29-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.

The furniture and related products and wood products industries were two of the industries that contracted the most according to the ISM report. Of the 18 industries surveyed, the Wood Products sectgor contracted the most, while Furniture & Related Products ranked #8 in terms of contraction.

The report was issued by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

"The December Manufacturing PMI registered 48.4 percent, 0.6 percentage point lower than the 49 percent recorded in November. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates contraction after 30 straight months of expansion. 
The Manufacturing PMI figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent. 

The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 45.2 percent, 2 percentage points lower than the 47.2 percent recorded in November. 

The Production Index reading of 48.5 percent is a 3-percentage point decrease compared to November's figure of 51.5 percent. 

The Prices Index registered 39.4 percent, down 3.6 percentage points compared to the November figure of 43 percent; this is the index's lowest reading since April 2020 (35.3 percent). 

The Backlog of Orders Index registered 41.4 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the November reading of 40 percent. 

The Employment Index returned to expansion territory (51.4 percent, up 3 percentage points) after contracting in November (48.4 percent). 

The Supplier Deliveries Index reading of 45.1 percent is 2.1 percentage points lower than the November figure of 47.2 percent; this is the index's lowest reading since March 2009 (43.2 percent). 

The Inventories Index registered 51.8 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than the November reading of 50.9 percent. 
The New Export Orders Index reading of 46.2 percent is down 2.2 percentage points compared to November's figure of 48.4 percent. The Imports Index continued in contraction territory at 45.1 percent, 1.5 percentage points below the November reading of 46.6 percent."

Fiore continued, "The U.S. manufacturing sector again contracted, with the Manufacturing PMI at its lowest level since the coronavirus pandemic recovery began. With Business Survey Committee panelists reporting softening new order rates over the previous seven months, the December composite index reading reflects companies' slowing their output. Demand eased, with the (1) New Orders Index remaining in contraction territory, (2) New Export Orders Index markedly below 50 percent, (3) Customers' Inventories Index in 'just right' territory, and (4) Backlog of Orders Index recovering slightly but still in strong contraction. 

Output/Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) was neutral, with a combined zero-percentage point impact on the Manufacturing PMI calculation. The Employment Index moved back into expansion, and the Production Index dropped into contraction territory. Many panelists' companies confirm that they are continuing to manage head counts through a combination of hiring freezes, employee attrition and layoffs. 

Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — accommodated future demand growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster deliveries, and the Inventories Index expanded at a faster rate as panelists' companies continued to effectively manage the total supply chain inventory. The Prices Index contracted for the third consecutive month and has declined in each reading since March 2022, when it registered 87.1 percent.

"Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, one — Petroleum & Coal Products — registered moderate growth in December.

"Manufacturing contracted again in December after expanding for 29 straight months. Panelists' companies continue to judiciously manage hiring. The month-over-month performance of supplier deliveries was the best since March 2009. Average lead time remained 32 percent above previous trough for capital expenditures and 37 percent for purchased materials; both are too high. Managing head counts and total supply chain inventories remain primary goals as the sector closes the year. More attention will be paid to demand as we enter the first quarter to shore up order books for the next six to 12 months," said Fiore.

The two manufacturing industries that reported growth in December are: Primary Metals; and Petroleum & Coal Products. The 13 industries reporting contraction in December, in the following order, are: Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.
Commodities reported up/down in price and in short supply

 

Commodities up in price
Copper; Electrical Components (2); Electricity (2); Electronic Components (25); Freight*; Labor — Temporary (4); Semiconductors; and Zinc.

Commodities down in price
Aluminum (8); Aluminum Products; Corrugate; Crude Oil; Diesel; Freight* (2); Natural Gas; Ocean Freight (4); Plastic Resins (7); Polyethylene; Polypropylene (5); Solvents; Steel (8); Steel — Cold Rolled; Steel — Hot Rolled (8); Steel — Stainless Steel Products; Steel Bars; and Steel Products (6).

Commodities in short supply
Bearings; Electrical Components (27); Electronic Components (25); Hydraulic Components (8); Labor — Temporary; Rubber Based Products (2); Semiconductors (25); Steel Products (2); Tyvek; and Wire Harnesses.

December 2022 manufacturing index summaries
Manufacturing PMI
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in December, as the Manufacturing PMI registered 48.4 percent, 0.6 percentage point below the reading of 49 percent recorded in November. "This is the second month of contraction and, as predicted, will likely be the norm for the PMI at least through the first quarter of 2023, with the PMI expected to be between 48 and 52 percent.

Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI, two (Employment and Inventories) were in growth territory, with both gaining a bit of ground. The PMI registered its lowest level since May 2020, when the index was 43.5 percent. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, only Petroleum & Coal Products registered moderate growth in December.

The Production Index decreased 3 percentage points, falling into contraction territory. Supply chain congestion continued to ease, indicated by the Supplier Deliveries Index showing faster deliveries. Only two of the 10 subindexes were positive for the period," says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the December Manufacturing PMI indicates the overall economy contracted in December after 30 consecutive months of expansion following contraction in April and May 2020. "The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI for December (48.4 percent) corresponds to a 0.1-percent decrease in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis," says Fiore.

New orders
ISM's New Orders Index contracted for the fourth consecutive month in December, registering 45.2 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points compared to the 47.2 percent reported in November. "Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, only Transportation Equipment reported increased new orders. Price and lead time declines as well as backlog contraction should encourage buyers to reenter the market and sales agents to be more aggressive in seeking new business, but clearly this did not occur in December. 

Slowing in new order rates to adjust for overordering in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 has been underway since March of this year," said Fiore. 

A New Orders Index above 52.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, three reported growth in new orders in December: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; and Transportation Equipment. Eleven industries reported a decline in new orders in December, in the following order: Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery.

Production
The Production Index registered 48.5 percent in December, 3 percentage points lower than the November reading of 51.5 percent, indicating contraction after 30 consecutive months of growth. "Of the top six industries, only two — Transportation Equipment; and Machinery — expanded in December. The Production Index contraction is a strong indicator that backlog reduction is not sufficient to maintain production growth. Additionally, as customers inventories have reached 'about right' levels, panelists are now concerned about future production potential," says Fiore. An index above 52.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial

Production figures.
The four industries reporting growth in production during the month of December are: Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery. The eight industries reporting a decrease in production in December — in the following order — are: Chemical Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products. Six industries reported no change in production.

Employment
ISM's Employment Index registered 51.4 percent in December, 3 percentage points higher than the November reading of 48.4 percent.

"The index indicated employment expanded after contracting for one month. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, only two (Petroleum & Coal Products; and Machinery) expanded. Labor management sentiment continued to shift, with a number of panelists' companies reducing employment levels through hiring freezes, attrition — and since November — layoffs. In December, layoffs were mentioned in 11 percent of employment comments, down from 14 percent in November, likely due to the holiday period. Turnover rates improved marginally, recording their lowest level (27 percent of comments) since tracking began in June 2021. For those companies expanding their workforces, comments continue to support an improving hiring environment," says Fiore.

An Employment Index above 50.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, five reported employment growth in December: Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The six industries reporting a decrease in employment in December — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Seven industries reported no change in employment in December compared to November.

Supplier deliveries†
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was faster for a third straight month in December, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 45.1 percent, 2.1 percentage points lower than the 47.2 percent reported in November. This reading indicates the fastest supplier delivery performance in 165 months (March 2009, when the index registered 43.2 percent). Of the top six manufacturing industries, only Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products reported slower deliveries. "In December, 88 percent of panelists reported 'same' or 'faster' delivery times. Panelists' comments overwhelmingly confirmed that suppliers performed better in December compared to previous months, continuing an improvement trend that began in May 2022," says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

Three of 18 manufacturing industries reported slower supplier deliveries in December: Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The 10 industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in December as compared to November — in the following order — are: Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment.

Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 51.8 percent in December, 0.9 percentage point higher than the 50.9 percent reported for November.

"Manufacturing inventories expanded at a faster rate compared to November. Of the six big manufacturing industries, two (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products) increased manufacturing raw material inventories in December. Panelists' companies continue their efforts to reduce their total supply chain inventories in preparation for a further economic slowdown, indicated by the contraction in new orders, slow expansion in manufacturing inventories and the 'just right' level of customers' inventories," says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the eight reporting higher inventories in December — in the following order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products. The six industries reporting contracting inventories in December — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; and Transportation Equipment.

Customers' inventories†
ISM's Customers' Inventories Index registered 48.2 percent in December, 0.5 percentage point lower than the 48.7 percent reported for November.

"Customers' inventory levels are considered 'just right.'  The current index level continues to no longer provide positive support to future manufacturing expansion," says Fiore.

Five industries reported customers' inventories as too high in December: Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The seven industries reporting customers' inventories as too low in December — listed in order — are: Machinery; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. Six industries reported no change in customers' inventories in December compared to November.

Prices†
The ISM Prices Index registered 39.4 percent in December, 3.6 percentage points lower compared to the November reading of 43 percent, indicating raw materials prices decreased for the third straight month after a 28-month period in "increasing" territory. This is the index's lowest level since a reading of 35.3 percent in April 2020. Over the past nine months, the index has decreased 47.7 percentage points, including a combined 26-percentage point plunge in July and August. None of the top six manufacturing industries reported increases in prices in December. "Price declines continue to be driven by relaxation in energy markets, steel, aluminum, chemicals, plastics, corrugate as well as lower freight costs. Notably, 86 percent of respondents reported paying the same or lower prices in December, compared to 87 percent in November, continuing the declining price trend," says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In December, only one industry reported paying increased prices for raw materials: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products. The 10 industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in December — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. Seven industries reported no change in prices in December compared to November.

Backlog of orders†
ISM's Backlog of Orders Index registered 41.4 percent in December, a 1.4-percentage point increase compared to November's reading of 40 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the third consecutive month after a 27-month period of expansion. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, only one — Machinery, which is capital equipment intensive — expanded order backlogs in December.

"Backlogs contracted again at a significant rate, as weak new order levels negatively impacted manufacturing books of business. Many panelists indicated that they were working off backlog (overdue orders) as new order rates continue to soften," says Fiore. "The index recorded its lowest level since May 2020, when it registered 38.2 percent."

Two industries reported growth in order backlogs in December: Textile Mills; and Machinery. Twelve industries reported lower backlogs in December, in the following order: Wood Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment.

New export orders†
ISM's New Export Orders Index registered 46.2 percent in December, 2.2 percentage points lower than the November reading of 48.4 percent.

"The New Export Orders Index contracted in December for the fifth consecutive month after 25 straight months in expansion territory. Continued weakness in European economies and China's economic sluggishness continued to constrain new export order activity, which negatively impacts new order rates," says Fiore.

Five industries reported growth in new export orders in December: Wood Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The five industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in December are: Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery. Seven industries reported no change in new export orders in December compared to November.

Imports†
ISM's Imports Index registered 45.1 percent in December, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared to November's figure of 46.6 percent.

"The index remained in contraction in December after a recent five-month period of expansion, dropping to its lowest level since May 2020 (41.3 percent). Panelists' comments indicate that the index contraction is a combination of sluggish demand as well as effects from China's zero-COVID policy. At present, there is little indication that the latter issue is affecting U.S. output," says Fiore.

The only industry reporting growth in imports in December is Computer & Electronic Products. Eight industries reported lower volumes of imports in December, in the following order: Paper Products; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Nine industries reported no change in imports in December.

†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in December was 171 days, a decrease of six days compared to November. Average lead time in December for Production Materials was 85 days, an increase of one day. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 47 days, an increase of three days.