ST. CHARLES, IL - U.S. wood products manufacturers will endure a mild economic recession next year then benefit from a four-year growth spurt, according to Alan Beaulieu, economist and closing keynote presenter at the 2013 Stiles Executive Briefing Conference.

Beaulieu, a principal of the Institute for Trend Research and a frequent speaker at wood industry conventions, said U.S. industrial production should grow 3.0% this year, decline by 0.6% in 2014 and then increase each year through 2018.

Beaulieu said he projects 2014 to be a "mild consumer-led recession."

"2014 is the year to get your systems in place to capitalize on the 2015 growth swing," Beaulieu said. He also said that growth period will create "wage inflation" because of increased demand for skilled workers.

Beaulieu said he predicts a "significant recession" will occur in 2019, but that's nothing compared to a "great depression" he sees coming in about 2030 unless Washington succeeds in fixing the escalating national debt and curbing rising health-care costs.

Beaulieu's presentation capped off the 11th Stiles EBC, held April 14-16 at the Q Center in St. Charles. The event was attended by more than wood product manufacturing executives and partner suppliers.

Other highlights on the final day of the EBC included:

  • Niklas Petersson, business development manager of flat-line furniture for IKEA, said the retail giant is working to grow its North American supply base to increase sourcing for its North American stores from the current 23% to more than 50% in the coming years. "There is huge potential for more flat-line furniture to be made here," he said. IKEA currently has 38 stores in North America and employs about 12,000 workers representing about 10% of its world-wide retail outlets and workforce.

  • Chris Lewandowski of ifm efector, reported on sensors that can be mounted on woodworking equipment that can provide continuous, real-time monitoring to detect a problem before it can result in a potential catastrophic failure requiring costly downtime and repair. The sensor, which is mounted to a motor, monitors changes in a machine's vibration and can help identify a worn bearing, for example. 

  • Joe Thel founder of Hybatech discussed how woodworking companies can reduce their energy costs for lighting their plants by 50% or more by converting to LED light fixtures. He noted that LED lights can last up to 20 years without replacement and that manufacturers can take advantage of federal tax deductions and incentives offered by many electrical utilities to greatly reduce purchase and installation costs.

  • Glenn Ripley and Mark Scianna of Mission Bell, the largest architectural woodwork firm in the San Francisco Bay area, shared some of the newest efforts they are taking to improve the company. Mike Carson, former owner of Closet Works, moderated the discussion that covered Mission Bell's ESOP program, lean manufacturing journey and experience with the Bargstedt IntelliStore, an automated panel storage and retrieval system.

  • Gary Wernlund of Stiles Machinery highlighted 30 woodworking innovations spanning decorative materials like lighweight honeycomb panels and stone veneer through woodworking machinery such as laser contour edgebanding and CNC machining center tool cleaning using an ultrasonic process.

The 12th Stiles EBC is scheduled to take place April 6-8, 2014 at the Inverness Hotel & Conference Center in Denver, CO.