Residential furniture orders slump in November, cautious optimism for 2025

Photo By Spacejoy on Unsplash

HIGH POINT, N.C. — New residential furniture orders fell 9% in November compared to the same period in 2023, according to the January issue of Furniture Insights. This decline follows a relatively flat October and marks a return to the downward trend observed from May through September. Approximately 40% of the survey participants reported increased orders in November compared to a year ago. 

However, new orders were up 5% compared to October 2024 figures although down slightly for the year-to-date, noted Mark Laferriere, assurance partner at Smith Leonard, the accounting and consulting firm that produces the monthly report. 

November shipments were down 1% compared to 2023 figures, and flat with October 2024. Year to date through November 2024, shipments were down 7% compared to 2023. Backlogs were down 10% compared to November 2023, but up 1% from October 2024 "as current new orders outpaced shipments during the last month."

"Receivable levels were up 1% from October 2024, but down 4% from November 2023, both of which are materially in line with the respective shipment trends, given normal timing differences with collections," Laferriere noted. "Inventories were consistent with October 2024 at up 1% and down 4% from
November 2023, which are in line with prior periods and current operational levels," he added. 

On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales at furniture and home furnishings stores were up 2.3% in December compared to the previous month and up 8.4% from December 2023. However, sales were down 2.2% for the year to date December 2024, compared to the same period for 2023 on an unadjusted basis, according to the January Furniture Insights.

Future projections are difficult, Laferriere said, without knowing the extent of the impact tariffs will have on the furniture industry, housing and the overall economy. Domestic manufacturers, especially those with "hybrid operations," will be impacted through their outsourcing of materials and components.

"While likely greatly oversimplifying a very complex situation, an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods would seem manageable given the inflationary pressures the industry has dealt with in the last few years, coupled with the long product pipeline allowing time for companies to make necessary adjustments," he noted. "What seems more immediately concerning is the potential impact of tariffs on Canadian lumber utilized by the US housing industry as well as Canadian energy and the impact that could have on inflation in general, and specifically, consumer spending, interest rates, and ultimately housing activity that drives the furniture industry.

"This all follows a Vegas market which was largely reported to be positive, an averted port strike last month, as well as recent gains in housing and positive trends at retail."

Laferriere added, "What makes this situation so difficult are the unknowns, the volatility, and the potential for change/reversals with or without notice, including the potential for tariffs on other Asian countries such as Vietnam and the impact of expected retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports.

"Those in the industry are certainly smart enough and experienced enough to navigate any playing field, but they just need to know the rules of the game they’re playing. So, while these items are certainly disruptive in the short-term, the industry has dealt with similar situations in the past and we’re hopeful there are still enough things trending in the right direction so that the positive outlook for 2025, especially the second half, will materialize for those who have worked so hard to get to this point."

.

Have something to say? Share your thoughts with us in the comments below.

Profile picture for user karenkoenig
About the author
Karen Koenig | Editor

Karen M. Koenig has more than 30 years of experience in the woodworking industry, including visits to wood products manufacturing facilities throughout North America, Europe and Asia. As editor of special publications under the Woodworking Network brand, including the Red Book Best Practices resource guide and website, Karen’s responsibilities include writing, editing and coordinating of editorial content. She is also a contributor to FDMC and other Woodworking Network online and print media owned by CCI Media. She can be reached at [email protected]