New orders were down 6% in June 2024 compared to June 2023, which follows the 3% year-over-year decline last month, according to the latest issue of Furniture Insights. New orders were also down 8% compared to the prior month of May 2024. However, year to date through June 2024, new orders are still up 3% compared to 2023, though that spread has narrowed significantly with the last two months’ declines.

June 2024 shipments were down 8% from June 2023, but relatively flat with May 2024. Year to date through June 2024, shipments are down 9% compared to 2023.

June 2024 backlogs were down 6% compared to June 2023, and down 2% from May 2024.

Receivable levels were down 1% from May 2024, and also down 7% from June 2023, with both being materially in line with shipments for the same periods.

Inventories and employee levels are again materially in line with recent months, but down from 2023, indicating that companies have aligned levels to match current operations.

According to said Mark Laferriere, assurance partner at Smith Leonard, which produces the monthly report, June 2024 marked the second straight month in which both new orders and shipments declined over the comparable prior year month for the companies in our survey. This is in line with the 6% average decline in revenues reported by a representative group of the industry’s public companies in their latest quarterly filings.

As stated before, the national economic indicators continue to be “mixed” in July/August 2024. Specifically, consumer confidence inched up overall and the housing sales showed some signs of life compared to prior periods, not to mention a relatively positive earnings report from Home Depot. However, consumers are still concerned with the overall labor market in light of recent unemployment data and consumer debt remains high, which is a factor for certain sectors of the industry.

Meanwhile, ocean container rates, while still higher than we’d prefer, continued to decline in August compared to July overall. The latest World Container Index (“WCI”) indicates that spot rates decreased 3% overall last week.

There continue to be indications that interest rate cuts are coming, with many expecting that to occur at the Fed’s next meeting in mid- September. However, it could be next year before the full effect of those trickles down to the industry.

"Of course, here in the States, we have the Labor Day holiday and its annual sales events coming up this weekend, which should provide some signal as to which way the industry is headed for the remainder of the year," said Laferriere. "I’ve read some reports that many retailers are cautiously optimistic, and I hope they are right."