Hardwood Publishing expects lumber input prices to trend over the next two months in this index chart. The table shows the basket of forecasted prices that comprises the index chart.
Soaring Chinese demand has put a considerable strain on western Canadian softwood supplies, and rebuilding in Japan will require vast quantities of building materials. So softwood production in the northwestern United States should increase as the year progresses.
Since alder harvests usually parallel softwood harvests in that region, alder production may also increase. Demand from the cabinet industry, the leading domestic end-use market for alder, won’t come back in the near-term. However, Chinese, Vietnamese and Mexican purchasing will stay strong, absorbing most of the additional supply. Superior-grade alder will be subject to more downward price pressure than cabinet-grade, and cabinet-grade more than the lower grades.
Concentration yards, where green lumber is staged before heading to the drying process, have enjoyed pretty good 4/4 upper-grade red oak business of late—particularly in China—and will have to pay a bit more to replenish green inventories over the next two months.
Although 4/4 #1 Com red oak exports will be fair, low demand from domestic cabinet and flooring plants will remain a drag on selling prices. Strip flooring shipments aren’t likely to improve in the second quarter, and after briefly leveling off, green 4/4 #2 &3A Com red oak prices will to slip a bit more in early summer.
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